Who's betting on “Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 79% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.7K by 36 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
Who holds it
36 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is Toncar16, with $72 on it, $117K lifetime profit over 268 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is PascalPro, with $979 on it, $2.7K lifetime profit over 85 markets (64% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $46 on Yes.
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $171
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 1 · $46
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$171 on it
- 1Toncar1644% won of 268 · noise$72+$117K lifetime
- 2FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$46+$244K lifetime
- 3thecaricature44% won of 717$26−$7.9K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$7+$255K lifetime
- 50xba1f…425841% won of 207$6−$1.6K lifetime
No$2.5K on it
- 1PascalPro64% won of 85 · balanced$979+$2.7K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$637−$377K lifetime
- 3PancraceRoyer64% won of 204 · whale$417+$84K lifetime
- 4technician282% won of 201 · whale$307+$650K lifetime
- 50x5c669023bE8d949Cc489b8e397Ad81Cd606A31E3-176161814492975% won of 202$94−$386 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
22 more- François Hollande$45K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Sarah Knafo$41K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Le Pen$39K vol.Yes 88%No 12%Smart money: Yes
- Jordan Bardella$34K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- Raphaël Glucksmann$30K vol.Yes 81%No 19%Smart money: No
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon$28K vol.Yes 93%No 7%Smart money: Yes
- David Lisnard$27K vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: No
- Édouard Philippe$22K vol.Yes 81%No 19%Smart money: No
- Dominique de Villepin$22K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money: Yes
- Laurent Wauquiez$22K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Éric Zemmour$21K vol.Yes 76%No 24%Smart money split
- Bruno Retailleau$20K vol.Yes 47%No 54%Smart money: Yes
- Gabriel Attal$19K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Matthieu Pigasse$18K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Teddy Riner$16K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- François Asselineau$16K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- Marine Tondelier$15K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- Juan Branco$13K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Bernard Cazeneuve$13K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Michel-Edouard Leclerc$11K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Karim Bouamrane$11K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Bally Bagayoko$11K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?"?
36 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is Toncar16, with $72 on it, $117K lifetime profit over 268 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is PascalPro, with $979 on it, $2.7K lifetime profit over 85 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.