Who's betting on “Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?”?
Smart money leans No: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $30K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 103 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 61 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 42 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 19¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
103 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is ThanksGivingTurkey1001, with $4.2K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 433 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is jaihind, with $629 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 125 markets (76% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $708 on Yes.
- Holders
- 61
- Money on it
- $8.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 2 · $708
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.6K on it
- 1ThanksGivingTurkey100168% won of 433 · whale$4.2K+$63K lifetime
- 2FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$627+$244K lifetime
- 3PascalPro64% won of 85 · balanced$583+$2.7K lifetime
- 4archaic86% won of 1,459 · whale$442+$197K lifetime
- 5beansontoasts73% won of 233 · balanced$397+$1.2K lifetime
No$2.0K on it
- 1jaihind76% won of 125 · balanced$629+$1.3K lifetime
- 2datperson58% won of 132 · balanced$425+$2.5K lifetime
- 3lineth67% won of 662 · whale$143+$91K lifetime
- 4Montecarlaw62% won of 1,123 · whale$105+$14K lifetime
- 5tomatis22100% won of 1$97−$113 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
22 more- François Hollande$45K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Sarah Knafo$41K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Le Pen$39K vol.Yes 88%No 12%Smart money: Yes
- Jordan Bardella$34K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon$28K vol.Yes 93%No 7%Smart money: Yes
- David Lisnard$27K vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: No
- Édouard Philippe$22K vol.Yes 81%No 19%Smart money: No
- Dominique de Villepin$22K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money: Yes
- Laurent Wauquiez$22K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Éric Zemmour$21K vol.Yes 76%No 24%Smart money split
- Bruno Retailleau$20K vol.Yes 47%No 54%Smart money: Yes
- Gabriel Attal$19K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Matthieu Pigasse$18K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Teddy Riner$16K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- François Asselineau$16K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- Marine Tondelier$15K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- Xavier Bertrand$14K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Juan Branco$13K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Bernard Cazeneuve$13K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Michel-Edouard Leclerc$11K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Karim Bouamrane$11K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Bally Bagayoko$11K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?"?
103 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is ThanksGivingTurkey1001, with $4.2K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 433 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is jaihind, with $629 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 125 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 19¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.