Who's betting on “Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 21, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 71% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 61 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $25K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 11% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 22, 2026.
The smart money
11% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them.
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $324
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
9 more- October 7$16K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- October 18$15K vol.Yes 94%No 6%Smart money: Yes
- October 10$49K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 20$35K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$33K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 14$33K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 17$28K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 6$18K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 13$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 21, 2026?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 21, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 22, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
11% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 22, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.