Who's betting on “Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 42% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.5K by 47 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 42% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 33% 23 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 19, 2026.
The smart money
42% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
Who holds it
47 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dafri220286, with $345 on it, $747 lifetime profit over 35 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is ZINOB, with $22 on it, $938 lifetime profit over 57 markets (60% won).
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $41
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 1Dafri22028686% won of 35 · balanced$345+$747 lifetime
- 2black456274% won of 713 · balanced$295+$452 lifetime
- 30x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-178340600939647% won of 78,778$241−$4.0M lifetime
- 4Luck7.7.763% won of 369$160−$4.4K lifetime
- 5userxp51% won of 228$159−$1.4K lifetime
No$41 on it
- 1ZINOB60% won of 57$22+$938 lifetime
- 2Mr.Frog🐸62% won of 302 · whale$12+$4.7K lifetime
- 3Lpvp6160% won of 5$9−$50 lifetime
- 4AMAM1355% won of 6,743$8−$120K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$6+$255K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
9 more- October 21$25K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- October 7$16K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- October 10$49K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 20$35K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$33K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 14$33K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 17$28K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 6$18K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 13$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?"?
47 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 46 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dafri220286, with $345 on it, $747 lifetime profit over 35 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is ZINOB, with $22 on it, $938 lifetime profit over 57 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 19, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
42% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 19, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.