Who's betting on “Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 33 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.9K by 106 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 53% 63 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
Who holds it
106 wallets hold a position worth $6.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is KimchiCapital, with $3.5K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 514 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $116 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,242 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $6.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $484
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.4K on it
- 1KimchiCapital76% won of 514 · balanced$3.5K+$37K lifetime
- 2xiaojiren82% won of 219 · balanced$1.1K+$3.3K lifetime
- 3ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$385+$313K lifetime
- 4pragmat1sm59% won of 44$330−$1.2K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$263−$377K lifetime
No$484 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$116+$255K lifetime
- 2Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$71+$104K lifetime
- 3burge14646% won of 770$58−$1.7K lifetime
- 4lissartter56% won of 2,997$38−$287K lifetime
- 5longdated-poli4% won of 3,609$24−$64K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?"?
106 wallets hold a position worth $6.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is KimchiCapital, with $3.5K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 514 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $116 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,242 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 8¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points. A week ago, Yes by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.