Who's betting on “Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 76 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 45% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 64% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 84¢ and No at 17¢, an 84% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
45% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points.
Who holds it
76 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is spacegliderr, with $1.2K on it, $78K lifetime loss over 224 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $80 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,228 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $336
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.5K on it
- 1spacegliderr29% won of 224$1.2K−$78K lifetime
- 20x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427162% won of 6,187 · whale$730+$64K lifetime
- 3Bitao97% won of 12,600 · whale$334+$13K lifetime
- 4Specialist200303100% won of 73$322−$185 lifetime
- 50xd0d9…30f268% won of 319$150−$125 lifetime
No$336 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,228 · noise$80+$254K lifetime
- 2Robbb80% won of 489 · whale$46+$94K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$21−$4.7M lifetime
- 4televisionloud42% won of 15,251$20−$18K lifetime
- 5bushseer92% won of 90$20−$41 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
2 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?"?
76 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is spacegliderr, with $1.2K on it, $78K lifetime loss over 224 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $80 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,228 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 84¢ and No at 17¢, an 84% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.