Who's betting on “Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 82 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 48 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 86% 34 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
Who holds it
82 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271, with $127 on it, $64K lifetime profit over 6,265 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is kaspersz, with $696 on it, $445 lifetime profit over 213 markets (89% won).
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $546
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$546 on it
- 10x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,265 · whale$127+$64K lifetime
- 2Robbb80% won of 489 · whale$97+$94K lifetime
- 3Specialist200303100% won of 73$56−$185 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,234 · noise$51+$255K lifetime
- 5meagainsttheworld76% won of 1,058 · whale$43+$142K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1kaspersz89% won of 213 · grinder$696+$445 lifetime
- 2Peter.YF76% won of 259 · balanced$316+$1.8K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,080$68−$49K lifetime
- 4Kennethnews71% won of 243$39−$1.0K lifetime
- 5Belfart63% won of 46 · balanced$36+$608 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
2 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?"?
82 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271, with $127 on it, $64K lifetime profit over 6,265 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is kaspersz, with $696 on it, $445 lifetime profit over 213 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.