Who's betting on “Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.3K by 44 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 27 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points.
Who holds it
44 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is bbccJ, with $25 on it, $1.1K lifetime loss over 238 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is MaxVision, with $974 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 203 markets (42% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $119
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$119 on it
- 1bbccJ72% won of 238$25−$1.1K lifetime
- 2ms191065% won of 302 · balanced$17+$2.4K lifetime
- 3dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$15+$29K lifetime
- 42B9S27% won of 14,480 · noise$14+$97K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$13+$254K lifetime
No$1.2K on it
- 1MaxVision42% won of 203 · noise$974+$9.9K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,301$119−$52K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$58+$829K lifetime
- 4GuyFromTinder37% won of 22,344$12−$89K lifetime
- 5LesterDiamond41% won of 3,957 · noise$5+$203K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?"?
44 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is bbccJ, with $25 on it, $1.1K lifetime loss over 238 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is MaxVision, with $974 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 203 markets (42% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.