Who's betting on “Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 73% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 59 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $28K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 76 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 14% 25 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 51 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
14% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
Who holds it
76 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is RogerFed, with $8.3K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 388 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is groth, with $124 on it, $146K lifetime profit over 495 markets (77% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $124 on No.
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $516
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 1 · $124
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10K on it
- 1RogerFed70% won of 388$8.3K−$13K lifetime
- 2rabbit00745% won of 299 · noise$1.3K+$44K lifetime
- 3bbccJ72% won of 238$226−$1.1K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$223−$377K lifetime
- 52B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$105+$97K lifetime
No$516 on it
- 1groth77% won of 495 · sniper$124+$146K lifetime
- 2sqsb56% won of 59 · whale$85+$709 lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$65+$255K lifetime
- 4longdated-poli4% won of 3,609$40−$64K lifetime
- 5fiter17% won of 842 · noise$36+$50K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?"?
76 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is RogerFed, with $8.3K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 388 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is groth, with $124 on it, $146K lifetime profit over 495 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
14% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.