Who's betting on “Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 50% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $29K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.1K by 119 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 50% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 33% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 70¢ and No at 31¢, a 70% implied chance of Yes. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
50% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
Who holds it
119 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 119 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-1767367002794, with $804 on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 610 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is rocky42015, with $293 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 1,056 markets (52% won).
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $797
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.3K on it
- 10xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-176736700279462% won of 610$804−$1.4K lifetime
- 2nellojello54% won of 225 · balanced$334+$12K lifetime
- 3JackMoneyEth85% won of 201$289−$11K lifetime
- 4sabsabinxz70% won of 99 · whale$243+$84K lifetime
- 5kanhaoleaha83% won of 212 · balanced$208+$209 lifetime
No$797 on it
- 1rocky4201552% won of 1,056$293−$15K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$232+$255K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$126−$4.7M lifetime
- 4browndust41% won of 1,196$30−$18K lifetime
- 5youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$15−$6.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
3 more- 30-34$28K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- 20-24$19K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- <20$13K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?"?
119 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 119 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-1767367002794, with $804 on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 610 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is rocky42015, with $293 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 1,056 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 70¢ and No at 31¢, a 70% implied chance of Yes. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.