Who's betting on “Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.7K by 62 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 38% 48 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
38% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 59 points.
Who holds it
62 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-1767367002794, with $39 on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 610 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Udonsan, with $2.1K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 868 markets (78% won).
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $162
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$162 on it
- 10xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-176736700279462% won of 610$39−$1.4K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$18−$377K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$16+$819K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$13+$255K lifetime
- 5Specialist200303100% won of 73$9−$185 lifetime
No$2.5K on it
- 1Udonsan78% won of 868 · whale$2.1K+$68K lifetime
- 2kanhaoleaha83% won of 212 · balanced$193+$209 lifetime
- 3iamnotwhoiwas46% won of 1,548$104−$2.2K lifetime
- 4sanlitou2026p1100% won of 444$23−$52 lifetime
- 5ilovecarrots33% won of 1,162$20−$3.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
3 more- 25-29$29K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: Yes
- 30-34$28K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- <20$13K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?"?
62 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xE43235629C5F4581D039CEc28014dC74631b934A-1767367002794, with $39 on it, $1.4K lifetime loss over 610 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Udonsan, with $2.1K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 868 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
38% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 59 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.