Who's betting on “Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 52 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 64 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 41% 35 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 51 points. A week ago, Yes by 43 points.
Who holds it
64 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787, with $2.3K on it, $10K lifetime profit over 171 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $2 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,242 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $16
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.8K on it
- 10xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-176094584678764% won of 171 · balanced$2.3K+$10K lifetime
- 2gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$556+$6.7K lifetime
- 3johnsalchichon95% won of 1,548 · balanced$468+$9.8K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,267 · whale$190+$64K lifetime
- 5Dapsy51% won of 919$99−$73K lifetime
No$16 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$2+$255K lifetime
- 209F911029D7486% won of 632 · whale$2+$14K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$2+$829K lifetime
- 4youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$2−$6.5K lifetime
- 50xdA446074d3FF8c1fa87227705468BDb80B122E5a-176776398324958% won of 165$2−$895 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
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- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?"?
64 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787, with $2.3K on it, $10K lifetime profit over 171 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $2 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,242 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 51 points. A week ago, Yes by 43 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.