Who's betting on “Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $316 by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 38 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 21, 2027.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $316 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $14 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won). The largest No holder is perfectnostalgia, with $77 on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $62 on No.
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $65
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $250
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $62
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$65 on it
- 10xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$14+$334K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$12+$27K lifetime
- 3TheIronBank75% won of 200$6−$8.3K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$4−$485K lifetime
- 5awgraewrfa100% won of 5$4−$189 lifetime
No$250 on it
- 1perfectnostalgia52% won of 932 · whale$77+$153K lifetime
- 2FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$62+$244K lifetime
- 3gordostimberos93% won of 67$49−$89 lifetime
- 4Trashstar76% won of 204 · balanced$24+$159 lifetime
- 5pinner38% won of 1,098$12−$9.6K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
4 more- 3.5–3.9%$62K vol.Yes 57%No 43%Smart money: Yes
- 2.5–2.9%$24K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- 2.0–2.4%$20K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 4.0-4.4%$16K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$950K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $316 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $14 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won). The largest No holder is perfectnostalgia, with $77 on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 21, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 21, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.