Who's betting on “Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.0K by 80 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 41 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 76¢ and No at 25¢, a 76% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
80 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc8b9…b836, with $3.7K on it, $371K lifetime profit over 552 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $643 on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 2,614 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $6.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.8K on it
- 10xc8b9…b83664% won of 552 · whale$3.7K+$371K lifetime
- 2sciuboi60% won of 645 · whale$567+$246K lifetime
- 3moneymakingmachine58% won of 1,109$522−$12K lifetime
- 4D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC3893558% won of 935 · whale$453+$85K lifetime
- 5SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$169+$48K lifetime
No$2.2K on it
- 1macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$643−$8.2K lifetime
- 2cosmicsteaks47% won of 4,326 · whale$229+$8.2K lifetime
- 3Mandalorec63% won of 286 · balanced$203+$3.2K lifetime
- 40xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl80% won of 1,104 · balanced$202+$28K lifetime
- 5JohnP9242% won of 423 · noise$129+$17K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate races will be within 5%?
3 more- Minnesota$14K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- Iowa$14K vol.Yes 70%No 30%Smart money split
- Ohio (Special)$10K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?"?
80 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc8b9…b836, with $3.7K on it, $371K lifetime profit over 552 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $643 on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 2,614 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 76¢ and No at 25¢, a 76% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.