Who's betting on “Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?”?
Smart money leans No: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $640 by 39 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 20 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points.
Who holds it
39 wallets hold a position worth $640 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 38 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $56 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is makeit99, with $341 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 302 markets (94% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $341 on No.
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $96
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $544
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 1 · $341
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$96 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$56+$255K lifetime
- 2pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$11−$320K lifetime
- 30xd10A59fCC18955EeAebd06D1234Cc3BD1e3fB9cD-178211198433261% won of 889$8−$518 lifetime
- 40x3906…aa1cno record yet$6
- 5youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$4−$6.5K lifetime
No$544 on it
- 1makeit9994% won of 302 · sniper$341+$83K lifetime
- 2Fabulous-Mukluk-Convert52% won of 7,066$66−$674 lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$48−$377K lifetime
- 4senecorpion55% won of 158 · balanced$34+$606 lifetime
- 50x3aD146a7daE2dBab2281c7e351beDCE11748b4C5-177162952493675% won of 532$16−$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?"?
39 wallets hold a position worth $640 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 38 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $56 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is makeit99, with $341 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 302 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.