Who's betting on “Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?”?
Smart money leans No: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 44 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $45K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 71 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 19% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 64% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
19% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 48 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
71 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Milksheen, with $484 on it, $13K lifetime loss over 92 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is lamyk, with $643 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 320 markets (59% won).
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $1.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.0K on it
- 1Milksheen61% won of 92$484−$13K lifetime
- 2pragmat1sm59% won of 44$246−$1.2K lifetime
- 3st0rm23395% won of 200 · balanced$90+$285 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,171 · noise$28+$254K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$28+$334K lifetime
No$3.5K on it
- 1lamyk59% won of 320 · balanced$643+$20K lifetime
- 20x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-177846773587665% won of 284 · whale$541+$27K lifetime
- 3Mr.Frog🐸62% won of 302 · whale$511+$4.7K lifetime
- 4dedidanc67% won of 267$491−$5.3K lifetime
- 50x8482828377382938% won of 360$333−$26K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
3 more- 55%+$18K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 60%+$14K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- 45%+$49K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?"?
71 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Milksheen, with $484 on it, $13K lifetime loss over 92 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is lamyk, with $643 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 320 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
19% of the money on Yes and 64% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 48 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.