Who's betting on “Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $295K traded all time
- Held now
- $138K by 266 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 147 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 60% 118 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $295K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
Who holds it
266 wallets hold a position worth $138K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 265 of them. The largest Yes holder is perfectnostalgia, with $44K on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2 on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
- Holders
- 147
- Money on it
- $138K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Holders
- 119
- Money on it
- $16
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$138K on it
- 1perfectnostalgia52% won of 932 · whale$44K+$153K lifetime
- 2firegold69% won of 591 · whale$26K+$16K lifetime
- 3Randomfool98% won of 121 · whale$13K+$39K lifetime
- 40xbb930e4Bde6Ea07Ed2A996088aFcd0a3602e7383-17484671952570% won of 2$5.6K−$655 lifetime
- 5Occasionalbettor94% won of 215 · whale$5.1K+$77K lifetime
No$16 on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$2−$4.7M lifetime
- 2sam5272748291658% won of 101 · whale$1+$6.5K lifetime
- 3AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$1+$122K lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,094$1−$48K lifetime
- 5exothetajunkie78% won of 204 · whale$1+$23K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
4 more- 25 bps increase$225K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps increase$86K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 25 bps decrease$41K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 50+ bps decrease$36K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$946K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?"?
266 wallets hold a position worth $138K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 265 of them. The largest Yes holder is perfectnostalgia, with $44K on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2 on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $295K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.