Who's betting on “Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 20 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $225K traded all time
- Held now
- $23K by 221 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 92% 121 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 72% 100 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $225K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
The smart money
92% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
221 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 221 of them. The largest Yes holder is aghy, with $41 on it, $195K lifetime profit over 11 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is QMG-CORE, with $7.0K on it, $57K lifetime profit over 1,224 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 121
- Money on it
- $65
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Holders
- 100
- Money on it
- $22K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$65 on it
- 1aghy36% won of 11$41+$195K lifetime
- 2test456y7872% won of 1,049 · whale$3+$33K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$3−$4.7M lifetime
- 4sam5272748291658% won of 101 · whale$3+$6.5K lifetime
- 5Huye16866% won of 1,136 · whale$1+$1.1K lifetime
No$22K on it
- 1QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$7.0K+$57K lifetime
- 2QMG-MACRO65% won of 129$3.9K−$17K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$3.4K+$829K lifetime
- 4Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,906 · whale$1.3K+$163K lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$1.2K+$570 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
4 more- No change$295K vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps increase$86K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 25 bps decrease$41K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 50+ bps decrease$36K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$950K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?"?
221 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 221 of them. The largest Yes holder is aghy, with $41 on it, $195K lifetime profit over 11 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is QMG-CORE, with $7.0K on it, $57K lifetime profit over 1,224 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $225K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
92% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.