Who's betting on “Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?”?
Smart money leans No: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 33 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $86K traded all time
- Held now
- $88 by 116 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 57% 106 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $86K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
The smart money
57% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
Who holds it
116 wallets hold a position worth $88 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is fischsandwich, with $13 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 7 markets (14% won). The largest No holder is mystery, with $20 on it, $859 lifetime profit over 258 markets (81% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Holders
- 106
- Money on it
- $53
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $35
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$53 on it
- 1fischsandwich14% won of 7$13−$1.2K lifetime
- 2donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$4+$829K lifetime
- 3planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$4+$132K lifetime
- 4gibsmedats46% won of 35$4−$3.1K lifetime
- 5e46m347% won of 87,774 · whale$3+$964K lifetime
No$35 on it
- 1mystery81% won of 258 · balanced$20+$859 lifetime
- 20x9992…79f750% won of 298 · balanced$7+$27 lifetime
- 30xe600…a90787% won of 293$2+$126 lifetime
- 40x78b3…6dda55% won of 276$2−$69 lifetime
- 50xa72c…a78c71% won of 216$1−$7 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
4 more- No change$295K vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- 25 bps increase$225K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 25 bps decrease$41K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 50+ bps decrease$36K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$950K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?"?
116 wallets hold a position worth $88 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 116 of them. The largest Yes holder is fischsandwich, with $13 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 7 markets (14% won). The largest No holder is mystery, with $20 on it, $859 lifetime profit over 258 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $86K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.