Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 41 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.5K by 52 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 33 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
52 wallets hold a position worth $9.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $246 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $6.5K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $644
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $8.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$644 on it
- 1nj23adsknml350% won of 204$246−$5.0K lifetime
- 2Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$150+$54K lifetime
- 30xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$83+$61K lifetime
- 4balthazar53% won of 52,697 · whale$47+$1.2M lifetime
- 50x52eb…ec36no record yet$34+$35 lifetime
No$8.8K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$6.5K+$313K lifetime
- 2commeowder72% won of 280 · whale$1.6K+$195K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$477+$335K lifetime
- 40xd4d318b2D64630f62f2dbE0b12132A149abE1b0b-176962226585895% won of 109 · balanced$113+$185 lifetime
- 5pykue56% won of 938$55−$18K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
10 more- Below 3.8%$66K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Below 3.9%$58K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Below 3.5%$44K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Below 1.0%$41K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Below 3.7%$39K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Below 4.6%$34K vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: No
- Below 4.4%$28K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- Below 4.7%$24K vol.Yes 31%No 69%Smart money split
- Below 4.1%$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Below 3.6%$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?"?
52 wallets hold a position worth $9.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 52 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $246 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $6.5K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.