Who's betting on “Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 73% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $42K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.5K by 152 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 18% 69 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 83 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
18% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 58 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
Who holds it
152 wallets hold a position worth $7.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 152 of them. The largest Yes holder is doubtit, with $148 on it, $1.0K lifetime loss over 207 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is dpnd, with $2.8K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 240 markets (39% won).
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $565
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $7.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$565 on it
- 1doubtit60% won of 207$148−$1.0K lifetime
- 2DuneMentat74% won of 841$69−$12K lifetime
- 3dahua33% won of 3$57−$144 lifetime
- 4blxx67% won of 3$32−$46 lifetime
- 50x8c07…296739% won of 33$30−$420 lifetime
No$7.0K on it
- 1dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$2.8K+$29K lifetime
- 2Optimus-55% won of 330 · whale$833+$121K lifetime
- 3Besserwisser85% won of 48$384−$380 lifetime
- 4CBOEVIX100% won of 2$324−$56 lifetime
- 50xaF409E50577BD9cba48378656548A2D28D1a5662-177237781027386% won of 169 · balanced$323+$991 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
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- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?"?
152 wallets hold a position worth $7.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 152 of them. The largest Yes holder is doubtit, with $148 on it, $1.0K lifetime loss over 207 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is dpnd, with $2.8K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 240 markets (39% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
18% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 58 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.