Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $201K traded all time
- Held now
- $59K by 227 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 94 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 133 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $201K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
Who holds it
227 wallets hold a position worth $59K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 227 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $1.6K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $15K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 94
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Holders
- 133
- Money on it
- $55K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.4K on it
- 1DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$1.6K+$260K lifetime
- 2CryptoGo71% won of 103 · balanced$662+$3.8K lifetime
- 3siick69% won of 1,040 · whale$394+$97K lifetime
- 4jsjr57% won of 285$247−$20K lifetime
- 50x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$187−$8.4K lifetime
No$55K on it
- 1Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$15K+$33K lifetime
- 2JoeBlack0165% won of 1,023 · whale$6.1K+$89K lifetime
- 3GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$5.9K+$11K lifetime
- 4CompulsiveGambler69% won of 1,049 · whale$4.4K+$74K lifetime
- 5KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$4.3K+$274K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
3 more- March 31, 2027$92K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$14K vol.Yes 54%No 46%Smart money: No
- September 30$214K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?"?
227 wallets hold a position worth $59K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 227 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $1.6K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $15K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $201K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.