Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 93 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $79K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.4K by 23 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 6% 10 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $79K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
6% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 93 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 93 points. A week ago, No by 90 points.
Who holds it
23 wallets hold a position worth $6.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is nero2589, with $569 on it, $49K lifetime loss over 207 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $4.7K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $5.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.1K on it
- 1nero258982% won of 207$569−$49K lifetime
- 2SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,620$260−$9.0K lifetime
- 3radek4469% won of 260$160−$2.1K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$52−$377K lifetime
- 5prognozu81% won of 251 · balanced$35+$4.2K lifetime
No$5.3K on it
- 1Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$4.7K+$33K lifetime
- 2CompulsiveGambler69% won of 1,049 · whale$247+$74K lifetime
- 3Eia59% won of 1,231 · whale$83+$23K lifetime
- 4empiricist52% won of 42$56+$15 lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$44+$570 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
2 more- December 31$61K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- September 30$193K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?"?
23 wallets hold a position worth $6.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is nero2589, with $569 on it, $49K lifetime loss over 207 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $4.7K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $79K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
6% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 93 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 93 points. A week ago, No by 90 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.