Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 77% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $61K traded all time
- Held now
- $25K by 79 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 51% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 37 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $61K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
51% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
Who holds it
79 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 79 of them. The largest Yes holder is Strarper, with $661 on it, $2.5K lifetime profit over 178 markets (91% won). The largest No holder is CompulsiveGambler, with $8.5K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 1Strarper91% won of 178 · grinder$661+$2.5K lifetime
- 2Donkolo98% won of 319$504−$2.8K lifetime
- 35.6sol31% won of 213$155−$7.2K lifetime
- 4jsjr57% won of 285$129−$20K lifetime
- 5persikbandit76% won of 17$50+$373 lifetime
No$23K on it
- 1CompulsiveGambler69% won of 1,049 · whale$8.5K+$74K lifetime
- 2anotherpatrick69% won of 123$4.7K−$69 lifetime
- 3GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$3.2K+$11K lifetime
- 4KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$2.1K+$274K lifetime
- 5Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$788+$570 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
2 more- March 31, 2027$79K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- September 30$193K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?"?
79 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 79 of them. The largest Yes holder is Strarper, with $661 on it, $2.5K lifetime profit over 178 markets (91% won). The largest No holder is CompulsiveGambler, with $8.5K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $61K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.