Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 8 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $51K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 107 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 88% 55 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 52 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
88% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
Who holds it
107 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is compute, with $253 on it, $8.8K lifetime profit over 299 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $4.4K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $835
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$835 on it
- 1compute56% won of 299 · whale$253+$8.8K lifetime
- 2rexcom55% won of 415 · balanced$107+$11K lifetime
- 3leCommissaire55% won of 453 · whale$95+$104K lifetime
- 4NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$79+$11K lifetime
- 5abdoohl47% won of 327 · whale$78+$13K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$4.4K+$274K lifetime
- 2Napoleon198883% won of 59 · balanced$1.0K+$5.3K lifetime
- 3czvxks0% won of 1$947−$3 lifetime
- 4vakulchik59% won of 70 · balanced$618+$3.6K lifetime
- 5ajaaja91% won of 192$465−$6.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Kupiansk by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?"?
107 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is compute, with $253 on it, $8.8K lifetime profit over 299 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $4.4K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.