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Who's betting on “Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?”?

Politics$13K traded67 holdersEnds November 4, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
29%Yes🧠 smart money
71%No

Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$13K
traded all time
Held now
$3.2K
by 67 wallets
Smart share · Yes
64%
50 scored holders
Smart share · No
54%
17 scored holders
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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

The smart money

64% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points.

Who holds it

67 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is johnnath1222, with $391 on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 245 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is conherence, with $409 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 415 markets (75% won).

Yes29%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share64% ▼ 3 pts in 24 h
a day ago 68%now 64%
Holders
50
Money on it
$2.2K
Holders' win rate
53%
No71%
Smart money share54% ▼ 2 pts in 24 h
a day ago 56%now 54%
Holders
17
Money on it
$1.0K
Holders' win rate
64%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$2.2K on it

  1. 1johnnath122248% won of 245 · whale$391+$4.0K lifetime
  2. 20x5c161DC853Efa50C9Cd086A8B7b77B1696ca5387-172290663552775% won of 4$342−$238 lifetime
  3. 3sorbonne191075% won of 4$242+$720 lifetime
  4. 4GayPride80% won of 672 · whale$186+$652K lifetime
  5. 5donthackme29% won of 86,370 · noise$174+$828K lifetime

No$1.0K on it

  1. 1conherence75% won of 415 · balanced$409+$3.6K lifetime
  2. 2SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,611$356−$8.9K lifetime
  3. 3Haradwaith50% won of 53,882$90−$377K lifetime
  4. 4ItsRigg3d68% won of 96 · balanced$61+$722 lifetime
  5. 5GingerMcKenna36% won of 5,022 · noise$35+$39K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?"?

67 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is johnnath1222, with $391 on it, $4.0K lifetime profit over 245 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is conherence, with $409 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 415 markets (75% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

64% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.