Who's betting on “Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 60% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $192K traded all time
- Held now
- $65K by 287 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 60% 179 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 28% 108 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 78¢ and No at 22¢, a 78% implied chance of Yes. $192K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
The smart money
60% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
Who holds it
287 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 287 of them. The largest Yes holder is megaforest, with $7.7K on it, $21K lifetime loss over 69 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $3.7K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.0K on Yes.
- Holders
- 179
- Money on it
- $57K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 2 · $2.0K
- Holders
- 108
- Money on it
- $8.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$57K on it
- 1megaforest65% won of 69$7.7K−$21K lifetime
- 20x076BAF4f9155d6d596BBcd2E380c798a5f1357AF-177325563906273% won of 108 · whale$7.2K+$1.0K lifetime
- 3mrworldwide70% won of 1,445 · whale$7.1K+$219K lifetime
- 4ZiK.36% won of 492 · noise$6.3K+$33 lifetime
- 5MSFTQQQ80% won of 56$5.3K−$21K lifetime
No$8.3K on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$3.7K−$4.7M lifetime
- 2pkz63% won of 1,047 · whale$969+$67K lifetime
- 3anqana33% won of 235$727−$3.8K lifetime
- 4Chornerito69% won of 13$423−$2.3K lifetime
- 5JAMJAMJAM497% won of 829 · whale$220+$96K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lima Mayoral Election Winner
7 more- Francis James Allison Oyague$173K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca$96K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Samuel Marcos Daza Taype$18K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera$18K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Yehude Simón Munaro$10K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?"?
287 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 287 of them. The largest Yes holder is megaforest, with $7.7K on it, $21K lifetime loss over 69 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $3.7K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 78¢ and No at 22¢, a 78% implied chance of Yes. $192K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.