Who's betting on “Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?”?
Politics · $141K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
80% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
300 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 300 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $2.0K on it, $45K lifetime profit over 1,058 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $8.3K on it, $283K lifetime profit over 1,436 markets (58% won).
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 153
- Money on it
- $8.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 147
- Money on it
- $30K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| cowcatwhale | $2.0K | +$45K | 68% of 1,058 |
| notssf3whale | $2.0K | +$74K | 66% of 210 |
| aenews2whale | $908 | +$2.3M | 73% of 1,114 |
| Zachattack500 | $428 | -$1.3K | 70% of 246 |
| DirkDiggler67whale | $301 | +$133K | 58% of 1,060 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaawhale | $8.3K | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| StupidMonkeyyywhale | $2.8K | +$6.3K | 49% of 244 |
| 0xaa2b…5b75grinder | $2.8K | +$3.4K | 88% of 200 |
| Carwhale | $2.4K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $1.4K | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
- Kash Patel$311K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: Yes
- Howard Lutnick$101K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Kristi Noem$99K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money split
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$93K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: No
- Susie Wiles$66K vol.Yes 34%No 66%Smart money: No
- Lee Zeldin$35K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$25K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- Scott Bessent$15K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- David Sacks$10K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money split
Who's betting on Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?"?
300 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 300 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $2.0K on it, $45K lifetime profit over 1,058 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $8.3K on it, $283K lifetime profit over 1,436 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.