Who's betting on “Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?”?
Geopolitics · $28K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
77% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
78 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is fiter, with $19 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 769 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is archaic, with $943 on it, $194K lifetime profit over 1,343 markets (85% won).
- Smart money share
- 77% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $107
- Holders' winrate
- 38%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 77% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 50
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| fiternoise | $19 | +$46K | 16% of 769 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $17 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| HerrieDaviswhale | $14 | +$328K | 63% of 2,442 |
| 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758 | $13 | -$7.0K | 50% of 604 |
| AJSVwhale | $10 | +$218K | 41% of 102,753 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| archaicwhale | $943 | +$194K | 85% of 1,343 |
| Haradwaith | $152 | -$334K | 51% of 45,794 |
| 0xaF409E50577BD9cba48378656548A2D28D1a5662-1772377810273balanced | $106 | +$991 | 86% of 169 |
| 0xf040…d11f | $105 | -$924 | 59% of 270 |
| 0x90f444F7c4a08FDC601Bc9657d56AC9E656E98E2-1772474390742balanced | $98 | +$749 | 70% of 60 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
- Venezuela$393K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- Lebanon$125K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Saudi Arabia$88K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Qatar$52K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Afghanistan$45K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Kuwait$32K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Indonesia$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- North Korea$25K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Tunisia$24K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Syria$23K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Iran$21K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Iraq$18K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Bangladesh$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Cuba$16K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Malaysia$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is fiter, with $19 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 769 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is archaic, with $943 on it, $194K lifetime profit over 1,343 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
77% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.