Who's betting on “Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?”?
Geopolitics · $21K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
52% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
40 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 39 of them. The largest Yes holder is what-are-the-odds, with $17 on it, $1.1K lifetime profit over 81 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x452Dc4f7E125545e4e274DB40cFb43F9DD0df886-1768421542855, with $459 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 484 markets (91% won).
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $61
- Holders' winrate
- 44%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 43%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| what-are-the-oddsnoise | $17 | +$1.1K | 40% of 81 |
| thecaricature | $16 | -$8.0K | 42% of 660 |
| Dr.PNL | $9 | -$477K | 30% of 14,042 |
| AJSVwhale | $8 | +$220K | 41% of 103,864 |
| PaddyAlphawhale | $6 | +$55K | 70% of 380 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x452Dc4f7E125545e4e274DB40cFb43F9DD0df886-1768421542855 | $459 | -$10 | 91% of 484 |
| WeJustBettin | $387 | -$1.4K | 88% of 226 |
| gghffnoise | $290 | +$14K | 40% of 1,149 |
| 0xf040…d11f | $110 | -$924 | 59% of 270 |
| 0xaF409E50577BD9cba48378656548A2D28D1a5662-1772377810273balanced | $91 | +$991 | 86% of 169 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
- Venezuela$393K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- Lebanon$125K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- Saudi Arabia$88K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Qatar$52K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Afghanistan$45K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- Kuwait$32K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Indonesia$30K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Pakistan$28K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money split
- North Korea$25K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Tunisia$24K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Syria$23K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Iraq$18K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Bangladesh$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Cuba$16K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Malaysia$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?"?
40 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 39 of them. The largest Yes holder is what-are-the-odds, with $17 on it, $1.1K lifetime profit over 81 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x452Dc4f7E125545e4e274DB40cFb43F9DD0df886-1768421542855, with $459 on it, $10 lifetime loss over 484 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
52% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.