Who's betting on “Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?”?
Politics · $90K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
94% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.
115 wallets hold a position worth $8.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is illumination, with $242 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 30 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is Yolotrading, with $3.0K on it, $343 lifetime loss over 75 markets (53% won).
- Smart money share
- 94% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $616
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 40% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $8.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| illuminationbalanced | $242 | +$8.2K | 60% of 30 |
| MargaretEvans4554noise | $79 | +$48 | 43% of 184 |
| marinerhazbalanced | $75 | +$1.7K | 50% of 131 |
| AJSVwhale | $64 | +$218K | 41% of 102,701 |
| 0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095noise | $38 | +$2.6K | 45% of 293 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yolotrading | $3.0K | -$343 | 53% of 75 |
| Inchoroi | $1.4K | -$21K | 65% of 286 |
| ahhdumbobalanced | $1.2K | +$1.8K | 48% of 200 |
| user201balanced | $565 | +$636 | 88% of 33 |
| Krassbalanced | $457 | +$14K | 86% of 201 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
- Turkey$489K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- Saudi Arabia$450K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- Azerbaijan$192K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Oman$187K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Syria$171K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Somaliland$124K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- Kuwait$88K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- Jordan$14K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
115 wallets hold a position worth $8.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is illumination, with $242 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 30 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is Yolotrading, with $3.0K on it, $343 lifetime loss over 75 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.