Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 44 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $43K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.5K by 82 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 53 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 29 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 42 points.
Who holds it
82 wallets hold a position worth $8.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is aenews2, with $88 on it, $2.4M lifetime profit over 1,134 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is DFK, with $4.8K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 771 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $280
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $8.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$280 on it
- 1aenews273% won of 1,134 · whale$88+$2.4M lifetime
- 2Polly67100% won of 36$45−$15K lifetime
- 3HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$35+$325K lifetime
- 40x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$32−$8.4K lifetime
- 5whippas70% won of 20 · balanced$18+$166 lifetime
No$8.2K on it
- 1DFK81% won of 771 · whale$4.8K+$42K lifetime
- 2DEGENKHAN74% won of 1,147 · whale$2.0K+$104K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$370+$570 lifetime
- 4Anjun67% won of 1,886 · whale$335+$801K lifetime
- 5acc4202049% won of 859 · whale$235+$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will be arrested before 2027?
8 more- Anthony Fauci$228K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Hillary Clinton$61K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Tom Homan$51K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- James Comey$38K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money: No
- John Brennan$36K vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero$32K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Barack Obama$32K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Adam Schiff$21K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?"?
82 wallets hold a position worth $8.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is aenews2, with $88 on it, $2.4M lifetime profit over 1,134 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is DFK, with $4.8K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 771 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 42 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.