Who's betting on “Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?”?
Smart money leans No: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 27 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $247K traded all time
- Held now
- $82K by 401 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 53% 305 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 95 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $247K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 31, 2027.
The smart money
53% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
Who holds it
401 wallets hold a position worth $82K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 400 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x5f62746Ad55527ad75b4795bec7cd45F557eD989-1782276826909, with $7.2K on it, $5.9K lifetime loss over 166 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is zhaoyk, with $953 on it, $12K lifetime profit over 26 markets (46% won).
- Holders
- 306
- Money on it
- $81K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$81K on it
- 10x5f62746Ad55527ad75b4795bec7cd45F557eD989-178227682690958% won of 166$7.2K−$5.9K lifetime
- 2J-W52% won of 63 · balanced$5.5K+$1.9K lifetime
- 3TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$4.9K+$1.8M lifetime
- 4mazw887% won of 709$4.7K−$2.8K lifetime
- 5DongwangWin100% won of 4$4.4K−$690 lifetime
No$1.3K on it
- 1zhaoyk46% won of 26 · noise$953+$12K lifetime
- 2yikaiz33% won of 15$197−$2.2K lifetime
- 30x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-176027283709545% won of 302 · noise$38+$1.9K lifetime
- 4warptrading90% won of 216$18−$5.4K lifetime
- 5pp222357% won of 28$14−$278 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in China Annual GDP Growth 2026
9 more- 9.0%+$118K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 6.0-7.0%$92K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 5.0–6.0%$88K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 3.0–4.0%$88K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 1.0–2.0%$77K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- <1.0%$68K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 7.0–8.0%$65K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 8.0–9.0%$55K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 2.0–3.0%$47K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$946K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?"?
401 wallets hold a position worth $82K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 400 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x5f62746Ad55527ad75b4795bec7cd45F557eD989-1782276826909, with $7.2K on it, $5.9K lifetime loss over 166 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is zhaoyk, with $953 on it, $12K lifetime profit over 26 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $247K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 27 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.