Who's betting on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $33K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.8K by 84 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 57% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 57% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
57% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 60 points.
Who holds it
84 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is X-Rabbit.Sezu, with $603 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 443 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $38 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,235 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $123
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.6K on it
- 1X-Rabbit.Sezu66% won of 443 · whale$603+$35K lifetime
- 2lissartter56% won of 2,997$474−$287K lifetime
- 3K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE52% won of 564 · balanced$393+$2.1K lifetime
- 4a.weidel66% won of 83$349−$10K lifetime
- 5buyaoshangtou175% won of 207 · balanced$127+$727 lifetime
No$123 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$38+$255K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$17−$485K lifetime
- 3Numitus199449% won of 15,720$8−$28K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,840 · noise$8+$27K lifetime
- 5Hall-ex29% won of 41$6−$765 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?"?
84 wallets hold a position worth $2.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is X-Rabbit.Sezu, with $603 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 443 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $38 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,235 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 60 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.