Who's betting on “Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $10K by 90 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 54 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 12, 2026.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
Who holds it
90 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is rabbit007, with $1.6K on it, $44K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is sal9999, with $6.5K on it, $13K lifetime profit over 30 markets (90% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6.5K on No.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $7.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 94%
- Snipers
- 1 · $6.5K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.5K on it
- 1rabbit00745% won of 299 · noise$1.6K+$44K lifetime
- 2JosephIsGreat39% won of 146$274−$8.6K lifetime
- 3shiifoo52% won of 4,738 · whale$196+$46K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$194+$255K lifetime
- 5etar42% won of 180 · noise$129+$5.3K lifetime
No$7.8K on it
- 1sal999990% won of 30 · sniper$6.5K+$13K lifetime
- 2Fishsalad73% won of 66$813−$66 lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$170−$377K lifetime
- 4pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$62−$320K lifetime
- 5a553345% won of 284,174$48−$11K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?"?
90 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is rabbit007, with $1.6K on it, $44K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is sal9999, with $6.5K on it, $13K lifetime profit over 30 markets (90% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 12, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 12, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.