Who's betting on “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?”?
Iran · $150K volume · Closed · Updated October 16, 2026
This market closed on October 16, 2026 and resolved No. $150K has been traded on it.
62% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 16 points.
418 wallets hold a position worth $96K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 418 of them.
- Smart money share
- 62% ▼ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $48
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78% ▲ 11 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 344
- Money on it
- $96K
- Holders' winrate
- 82%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
- October 31$341K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- November 2$217K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$174K vol.Yes 34%No 67%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$90K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- September 30$446K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 7$60K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?"?
418 wallets hold a position worth $96K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 418 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?"?
This market closed on October 16, 2026 and resolved No. $150K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 16 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 16, 2026 and resolved No. $150K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.