Who's betting on “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?”?
Iran · $174K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $174K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
93% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
149 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 147 of them. The largest Yes holder is Valen9, with $1.7K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $4.7K on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 93% ▲ 8 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $6.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76% ▲ 8 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valen9whale | $1.7K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| paddaawhale | $1.4K | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| peterfromfamilyguywhale | $482 | +$47K | 56% of 303 |
| AJSVwhale | $352 | +$218K | 41% of 102,753 |
| Minteamadebalanced | $335 | +$1.0K | 79% of 200 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $4.7K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| MEPPwhale | $1.4K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| Haradwaith | $1.3K | -$334K | 51% of 45,794 |
| AlAhmeda | $811 | -$100K | 70% of 1,290 |
| BikesAreTheBikeswhale | $605 | +$101K | 65% of 1,329 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
- October 31$341K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- November 2$217K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$90K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- September 30$446K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 15$150K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 7$60K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?"?
149 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 147 of them. The largest Yes holder is Valen9, with $1.7K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $4.7K on it, $273K lifetime profit over 904 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $174K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.