Who's betting on “US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $109K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 153 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 70 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 83 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
Who holds it
153 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 153 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contentious-Dinnerdate, with $622 on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,087 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Wickier, with $5.0K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (56% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $469 on Yes.
- Holders
- 70
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $469
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.2K on it
- 1Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,087 · whale$622+$104K lifetime
- 2singularityman76% won of 360 · sniper$469+$78K lifetime
- 3mangaloes71% won of 14$179−$82 lifetime
- 4johnny2k82% won of 204$107−$4.6K lifetime
- 5pop69% won of 300 · whale$70+$26K lifetime
No$12K on it
- 1Wickier56% won of 1,003 · whale$5.0K+$1.2M lifetime
- 2vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$1.9K+$170K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$830+$335K lifetime
- 4D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC3893558% won of 935 · whale$457+$85K lifetime
- 5Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$423+$154K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?"?
153 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 153 of them. The largest Yes holder is Contentious-Dinnerdate, with $622 on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,087 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is Wickier, with $5.0K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.