Who's betting on “Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 60 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $279K traded all time
- Held now
- $60K by 136 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 73 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 8% 63 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $279K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 8% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 51 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
Who holds it
136 wallets hold a position worth $60K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nadmi, with $2.6K on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is frostnovae, with $38K on it, $142K lifetime loss over 46 markets (93% won).
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $46K
- Holders' win rate
- 87%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$13K on it
- 1Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$2.6K+$154K lifetime
- 288111260% won of 1,119 · whale$1.7K+$450K lifetime
- 3enri.hl59% won of 165$1.2K−$18K lifetime
- 4vortl51% won of 207$985−$4.2K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$778+$325K lifetime
No$46K on it
- 1frostnovae93% won of 46$38K−$142K lifetime
- 2gods-eye59% won of 32 · balanced$1.6K+$12K lifetime
- 3Natstar77759% won of 97$1.6K−$1.5K lifetime
- 4ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$775+$313K lifetime
- 5GammaSqueeze123454% won of 110$775−$182 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
2 more- October 31$262K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- September 30$19K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?"?
136 wallets hold a position worth $60K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nadmi, with $2.6K on it, $154K lifetime profit over 1,251 markets (35% won). The largest No holder is frostnovae, with $38K on it, $142K lifetime loss over 46 markets (93% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $279K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 8% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 51 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.