Who's betting on “Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 75% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $56K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.5K by 129 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 75% 63 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 65 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
75% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
Who holds it
129 wallets hold a position worth $6.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 128 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x76dd680beac1c3d96d4a42e15a8bcaa1944ec5e4-1792154490374, with $25 on it, $406 lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is geowatch, with $1.3K on it, $5.4K lifetime profit over 216 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $101
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 65
- Money on it
- $6.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$101 on it
- 10x76dd680beac1c3d96d4a42e15a8bcaa1944ec5e4-179215449037475% won of 4$25+$406 lifetime
- 2Brummer82% won of 11$16+$25 lifetime
- 3Nadmi35% won of 1,251 · noise$16+$154K lifetime
- 4Porx84% won of 411 · whale$3+$106K lifetime
- 5outcomes42% won of 234 · noise$3+$15K lifetime
No$6.4K on it
- 1geowatch87% won of 216 · balanced$1.3K+$5.4K lifetime
- 2aliaspopeye51% won of 367$995−$383 lifetime
- 3nonkenny9092% won of 1,453 · whale$601+$80K lifetime
- 4Wowiwow81% won of 327 · balanced$444+$19K lifetime
- 5Pilagi74% won of 219 · balanced$421+$315 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?"?
129 wallets hold a position worth $6.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 128 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x76dd680beac1c3d96d4a42e15a8bcaa1944ec5e4-1792154490374, with $25 on it, $406 lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is geowatch, with $1.3K on it, $5.4K lifetime profit over 216 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
75% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.