Who's betting on “Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 83% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $60K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.3K by 67 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 61% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 83% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
61% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
Who holds it
67 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is outcomes, with $104 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 234 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is geowatch, with $1.2K on it, $5.4K lifetime profit over 216 markets (87% won).
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $443
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$443 on it
- 1outcomes42% won of 234 · noise$104+$15K lifetime
- 2blackmamba1142% won of 90$56−$211 lifetime
- 30xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$49+$61K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$30−$377K lifetime
- 5MtnMark53% won of 101 · balanced$27+$11K lifetime
No$2.8K on it
- 1geowatch87% won of 216 · balanced$1.2K+$5.4K lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$531+$313K lifetime
- 3Wowiwow81% won of 327 · balanced$404+$19K lifetime
- 4Inchoroi65% won of 286$346−$21K lifetime
- 5MrMelonHead66% won of 381 · whale$155+$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?"?
67 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is outcomes, with $104 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 234 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is geowatch, with $1.2K on it, $5.4K lifetime profit over 216 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $60K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.