Who's betting on “Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.9K by 140 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 51 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 89 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
Who holds it
140 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 140 of them. The largest Yes holder is crypto-basenji, with $37 on it, $4.3K lifetime profit over 401 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is K00ldr4g0n, with $1.2K on it, $134K lifetime profit over 585 markets (43% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $112 on No.
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $158
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 89
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $112
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$158 on it
- 1crypto-basenji48% won of 401 · whale$37+$4.3K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,167 · noise$25+$254K lifetime
- 3Lbr974% won of 102 · balanced$15+$390 lifetime
- 4BloodyMummer78% won of 201 · whale$13+$60K lifetime
- 5rocky4200448% won of 800$9−$16K lifetime
No$4.7K on it
- 1K00ldr4g0n43% won of 585 · noise$1.2K+$134K lifetime
- 2DiaMat92% won of 111 · balanced$1.0K+$7.2K lifetime
- 3marketmover-34481% won of 208 · balanced$484+$2.4K lifetime
- 4Porx84% won of 411 · whale$480+$106K lifetime
- 5FishermansFiend72% won of 195 · balanced$312+$2.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Another NATO article 4 by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?"?
140 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 140 of them. The largest Yes holder is crypto-basenji, with $37 on it, $4.3K lifetime profit over 401 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is K00ldr4g0n, with $1.2K on it, $134K lifetime profit over 585 markets (43% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.