Who's betting on “Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 86 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 31% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 41 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
31% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
Who holds it
86 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is GOLADS96, with $130 on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 60 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is StarMaster, with $820 on it, $98K lifetime profit over 944 markets (54% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $98 on No.
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $814
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $3.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 1 · $98
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$814 on it
- 1GOLADS9677% won of 60$130−$2.2K lifetime
- 2crypto-basenji48% won of 401 · whale$122+$4.3K lifetime
- 3trading-noob-256% won of 9$103−$13 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,171 · noise$87+$254K lifetime
- 5ahhuat855% won of 229$60−$2.3K lifetime
No$3.7K on it
- 1StarMaster54% won of 944 · whale$820+$98K lifetime
- 2BalmyF100% won of 202$631−$0 lifetime
- 3Porx84% won of 411 · whale$448+$106K lifetime
- 4gotonetry3380% won of 535$291−$36 lifetime
- 5FishermansFiend72% won of 195 · balanced$213+$2.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Another NATO article 4 by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?"?
86 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is GOLADS96, with $130 on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 60 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is StarMaster, with $820 on it, $98K lifetime profit over 944 markets (54% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
31% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 42 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.