Who's betting on “AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 29 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $41K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.4K by 111 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 68 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 43 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
Who holds it
111 wallets hold a position worth $7.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is gagagagagaga, with $113 on it, $1.5K lifetime profit over 40 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is enrico-vasaio, with $1.9K on it, $23K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $404
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $7.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$404 on it
- 1gagagagagaga73% won of 40 · balanced$113+$1.5K lifetime
- 2BiggieChungus46% won of 200 · noise$64+$11K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,364$25−$217K lifetime
- 4Contentious-Dinnerdate67% won of 1,088 · whale$22+$104K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$20+$325K lifetime
No$7.0K on it
- 1enrico-vasaio65% won of 1,070 · whale$1.9K+$23K lifetime
- 20xDf273e0fE72a613b27de588aaA5237F3B76ae6E4-177305021622177% won of 243 · balanced$1.7K+$4.4K lifetime
- 3PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$975+$56K lifetime
- 4intiluha80% won of 10$532+$141 lifetime
- 5SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,242 · whale$331+$203K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$889K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$460K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?"?
111 wallets hold a position worth $7.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is gagagagagaga, with $113 on it, $1.5K lifetime profit over 40 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is enrico-vasaio, with $1.9K on it, $23K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.