Who's betting on “Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 83% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $594 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 1,051 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is nonkenny90, with $4.8K on it, $80K lifetime profit over 1,453 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.3K on it
- 1Warren-Buffett68% won of 1,051 · whale$594+$127K lifetime
- 2gods-eye59% won of 32 · balanced$312+$12K lifetime
- 38dcc906a9b52% won of 155$72−$38K lifetime
- 4KakiBatusik55% won of 225 · balanced$64+$3.6K lifetime
- 5Avitz3331% won of 269 · noise$53+$11K lifetime
No$9.4K on it
- 1nonkenny9092% won of 1,453 · whale$4.8K+$80K lifetime
- 2Jep-G52% won of 1,050 · whale$1.7K+$100K lifetime
- 3arii61% won of 261$1.0K−$6.9K lifetime
- 4Porx84% won of 411 · whale$525+$106K lifetime
- 5AlAhmeda71% won of 1,367$316−$96K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $594 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 1,051 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is nonkenny90, with $4.8K on it, $80K lifetime profit over 1,453 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.