Who's betting on “Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $21K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.5K by 57 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 83% 26 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 31 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
83% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
Who holds it
57 wallets hold a position worth $7.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is grasstoucher69, with $45 on it, $157K lifetime profit over 6,522 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $3.6K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $82
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $7.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$82 on it
- 1grasstoucher6956% won of 6,522 · whale$45+$157K lifetime
- 22B9S27% won of 14,444 · noise$7+$97K lifetime
- 3Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$6−$485K lifetime
- 4FrankG472856% won of 147 · balanced$6+$326 lifetime
- 5kroko61% won of 882 · whale$4+$45K lifetime
No$7.4K on it
- 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$3.6K+$17K lifetime
- 2EgoVolae48% won of 862 · whale$763+$62K lifetime
- 3Dimpled-Foal85% won of 275 · whale$693+$65K lifetime
- 4k7X9mP2qW452% won of 327 · whale$492+$28K lifetime
- 5PippiTrader63% won of 3,858 · whale$448+$37K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
14 more- ↓ $3,800$62K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,900$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ↓ $3,900$52K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ $4,700$31K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,800$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,700$29K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,400$28K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ↑ $4,300$25K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,600$22K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,200$17K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,600$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $4,000$29K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↓ $4,100$12K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↑ $4,200$11K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?"?
57 wallets hold a position worth $7.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is grasstoucher69, with $45 on it, $157K lifetime profit over 6,522 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $3.6K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.