Who's betting on “Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?”?
Finance · $3.6M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
33% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 47 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
1,367 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,366 of them. The largest Yes holder is Odysseus., with $1.2K on it, $30K lifetime loss over 5 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $27K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 33%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 367
- Money on it
- $86K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odysseus. | $1.2K | -$30K | 40% of 5 |
| fur-fox | $1.1K | -$2.3K | 44% of 9 |
| hippokanoise | $633 | +$58K | 49% of 72 |
| -ojoker- | $625 | +$0 | - |
| shrewsenhower | $513 | -$371 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $27K | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| 0xheavy888whale | $15K | +$440K | 73% of 4,499 |
| baran-ludomanwhale | $8.0K | +$96K | 50% of 169 |
| Lively-Awardnoise | $3.9K | +$36K | 38% of 192 |
| DrNee | $2.1K | -$5.0K | 94% of 279 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 11 (275 bps)$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 10 (250 bps)$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 9 (225 bps)$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 6 (150 bps)$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 12+ (300+ bps)$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 7 (175 bps)$3.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 2 (50 bps)$3.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 8 (200 bps)$3.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 5 (125 bps)$3.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 3 (75 bps)$3.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 4 (100 bps)$2.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?$3.2M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- AI bubble burst in 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?$2.4M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?$2.0M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?$1.7M vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$1.5M vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.5M vol.Yes 59%No 41%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?"?
1,367 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,366 of them. The largest Yes holder is Odysseus., with $1.2K on it, $30K lifetime loss over 5 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $27K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
33% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 47 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.