Who's betting on “AI bubble burst in 2026?”?
Finance · $2.5M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
27% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
923 wallets hold a position worth $107K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 921 of them. The largest Yes holder is recessionincoming, with $3.7K on it, $5.6K lifetime loss over 5 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is mazw8, with $6.8K on it, $2.6K lifetime loss over 703 markets (87% won).
- Smart money share
- 27%
- Holders
- 463
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 58%
- Holders
- 460
- Money on it
- $96K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| recessionincoming | $3.7K | -$5.6K | 100% of 5 |
| goatbossbalanced | $747 | +$1.0K | 69% of 42 |
| 0x2fdd1481ed3A20A8eCf6890cB0c3E0F578E25D01-1768459249265 | $598 | -$5.0K | 90% of 10 |
| illuminationbalanced | $573 | +$8.2K | 60% of 30 |
| Wojteknoise | $330 | +$54K | 15% of 225 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| mazw8 | $6.8K | -$2.6K | 87% of 703 |
| Gdub | $6.8K | -$3.1K | 70% of 1,003 |
| darlok | $6.7K | +$4.5K | 100% of 1 |
| phantomtradrbalanced | $5.7K | +$974 | 85% of 20 |
| deltasniper | $4.2K | -$48K | 56% of 241 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in AI bubble burst by...?
Other big finance markets
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- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "AI bubble burst in 2026?"?
923 wallets hold a position worth $107K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 921 of them. The largest Yes holder is recessionincoming, with $3.7K on it, $5.6K lifetime loss over 5 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is mazw8, with $6.8K on it, $2.6K lifetime loss over 703 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "AI bubble burst in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
27% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.