Who's betting on “Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $52K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 139 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 89% 48 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 62% 91 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
89% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
139 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them.
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $601
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 91
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
14 more- ↓ $3,800$62K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,900$41K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ↑ $4,700$31K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,700$29K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,800$28K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,400$28K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ↑ $4,300$25K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,600$22K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,500$21K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,200$17K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,600$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $4,000$29K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↓ $4,100$12K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↑ $4,200$11K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?"?
139 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $52K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.