Who's betting on “Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?”?
Smart money leans No: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 24 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $62K traded all time
- Held now
- $21K by 125 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 51% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 83 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
51% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
Who holds it
125 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 125 of them. The largest Yes holder is withoutmoonset, with $182 on it, $3.3K lifetime loss over 28 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.6K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $490 on No.
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $403
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 1 · $490
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$403 on it
- 1withoutmoonset82% won of 28$182−$3.3K lifetime
- 2grasstoucher6956% won of 6,522 · whale$72+$157K lifetime
- 3Dimpled-Foal85% won of 275 · whale$39+$65K lifetime
- 4EgoVolae48% won of 862 · whale$29+$62K lifetime
- 50xb1Ae2773dF489279CFF5026Cf2C9eff218873F6a-176970783609335% won of 114 · noise$22+$492 lifetime
No$20K on it
- 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$5.6K+$17K lifetime
- 2Tanjirooo89% won of 449 · balanced$3.6K+$7.3K lifetime
- 3beatyesterday81% won of 1,167$3.0K−$90K lifetime
- 40xce835747e39BF987dE4c04052b1677E6633E5b97-176194412535182% won of 347 · balanced$1.4K+$30K lifetime
- 50x74B4F9447B14b12308963FC048Ae363EB0756bEA-176917082615975% won of 417 · whale$981+$41K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
14 more- ↑ $4,900$57K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ↓ $3,900$52K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ $4,700$31K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,800$29K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,700$29K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,400$28K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ↑ $4,300$25K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↓ $3,600$22K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,500$21K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,200$17K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑ $4,600$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $4,000$29K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↓ $4,100$12K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- ↑ $4,200$11K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?"?
125 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 125 of them. The largest Yes holder is withoutmoonset, with $182 on it, $3.3K lifetime loss over 28 markets (82% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.6K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.